But by June mortality rates had returned to normal across the region. The chart below uses data from EuroMOMO, a network of epidemiologists who collect weekly reports on deaths from all causes in 23 European countries. These figures show that, compared with a historical baseline of the previous five years, Europe has suffered some deadly flu seasons since 2016—but that the death toll from covid-19 has been far greater.
Further, higher-than-expected efficacy may help offset coverage challenges that surveys have suggested. Those two factors could advance the timeline, and make Q3 a little more likely than Q4. A secondary effect of the recent vaccine trials is to make Q more likely for herd immunity than Q4. While the potential for a transition toward normalcy in just a few months is encouraging, many signs suggest that the next six to eight weeks will be difficult. Case and death numbers are at or near all-time highs in many locations, new variants may accelerate short-term transmission, and vaccine rollout has not yet proceeded far enough to protect much of the population. Strong public-health measures will remain critical to saving lives during this period.
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Total positive tests reported for November 22, 2021 is 3,629. ASU’s critical COVID-19 trend data is updated daily and accessible by the public. Total positive tests reported for November 29, 2021 is 1,961.
Arizona cases have increased since our last update, but remain far below the statewide levels in late June. Current known positive cases in the ASU community declined for the ninth consecutive report. Current known positive cases in the ASU community have increased slightly since our last report. Arizona cases have increased since our last update, but remain below the statewide levels in late June.
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But if these results hold up, the spread of strains against which existing vaccines are substantially less effective would be a significant risk to lives and could delay the end of the pandemic. What’s more difficult to estimate is when a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 will emerge. It could be a day after we publish this update, or six months , or years from now. The extraordinary progression we’ve already seen—in just over two years four strains in succession have become globally dominant—makes it dangerous to plan on a “no new variant” scenario.